CanaryMedia of the United States published a year-end feature titled: "The US Solar Industry in 2021: Huge, Complex, Alternative".
The U.S. solar market has managed to achieve a decade of steady growth despite changing global economic conditions and changing U.S. domestic energy policies. Even in the "alternative" year of 2021, solar expansion continues. Based on results from the first three quarters, analysts estimate that the U.S. will deploy 19 GW of utility-scale solar and nearly 4 GW of distributed solar in 2021, both of which set U.S. records. The solar industry is booming despite high installation costs, worker shortages, supply chain issues and complex import duties.

Solar growth in the U.S. has been phenomenal and sustained. In addition to the 23 GW expected to be deployed in the U.S. in 2021, research firm S&P Global Market Intelligence also forecasts 44 GW of PV to be commissioned in 2022, almost double the amount in 2021 some time.

According to a report by the Solar Energy Industries Association and Wood Mackenzie, the cumulative installed capacity of solar PV in the United States has exceeded 100 gigawatts. S&P researchers say U.S. demand remains strong, with 17.4 gigawatts of generating capacity under development or under construction.

The continuous downward trend in PV prices has come to an end

For the first time in the memory of many solar analysts, the price of solar system hardware has risen in an industry where prices have continued to fall. All commodity materials used to make solar modules are facing upward price pressure, including polysilicon, silver, copper, aluminum and glass. High prices for polysilicon, the main ingredient in crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells, are jeopardizing some solar projects, with Bloomberg New Energy Finance's solar team noting that spot polysilicon prices have surged from a low of $6.30 a kilogram in 2020 to $37 a kilogram by the end of the year.
Global logistics woes are forcing delayed deliveries and higher prices for PV materials and modules. Shipping costs have risen by 500%, according to some analyst estimates. Solar power remains the lowest-cost source of electricity generation in many places, but power purchase agreements are being renegotiated due to razor-thin margins. Still, strong demand for solar means PV projects are more likely to be temporarily delayed than cancelled. The increase in solar input costs and power purchase agreements is in line with the increase in the cost and price of all new generation.

Driving U.S. Solar Manufacturing

Can the U.S. become a solar powerhouse without a domestic solar supply chain? Can the US solar industry regain its productive dynamism? U.S. solar manufacturers have largely lost the war with China. Of the nearly 400 GW of PV module production capacity worldwide, the U.S. currently has just 7.5 GW of PV module production capacity, according to Wood Mackenzie. Determined U.S. policymakers are trying to push legislation through subsidies and support to stimulate domestic solar manufacturing and use its power generation as a potential employment engine. In June 2021, the Solar Production Chain Act (OSSD) introduced by the Georgia Senate will provide partial incentives for domestic solar production.

Import tariffs

The Biden and Trump administrations have agreed on at least one thing: maintaining trade sanctions on Chinese goods, including solar panels. As for import tariffs, depending on which politician, economist or industrialist you ask, import tariffs are either an effective tool to defend trade sovereignty, or a blunt tool that raises costs for consumers and does little to create domestic industry . The U.S. International Trade Commission last month recommended that Biden keep tariffs on imported crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and modules — currently 15% — reduced by 0.25% annually over the next four years. On the other hand, the Solar Energy Industries Association asked Biden to stop imposing tariffs.